Oct. 22nd, 2015

yonihamagid: (that one)
If you call any state won by a party in the previous Presidential election by at least 55% "safe" for that party in the coming election, the Democratic nominee will start with 179 electoral votes and the Republican nominee will start with 125.

If you include state that were won by 10 percentage points or more, but in which the party did not take 55% of the votes (states in which alternative candidates made significant showings) the Democratic "safe" total comes to 191 and the Republican total would be 148

That leaves 199 electoral votes "up for grabs."

Of those votes, Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20) and Ohio (18) are the promised land. If Republicans flip only those three, they will win the next election, assuming they don't lose any states. And North Carolina (15) rests on a razor margin for the Republicans. Georgia (16) is up for grabs.

The primaries are irrelevant. The Republican party has built a firewall behind which they can't lose, but in doing so they've also built a firewall the can't win beyond.

Are there scenarios in which the Republicans gain the White House in 2016? Absolutely. However, if nothing changes between now and then, the candidates are irrelevant. The Democrats will keep the White House.


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